TODAY, Nigeria is conducting the seventh consecutive general election in this Fourth Republic which started in 1999. Expectations are high that the election shall be like none before except for the fact that the three major tribes: Igbo, Yoruba, Hausa/Fulani have presidential candidates.
Election – the Three-horse race
Mr Peter Obi, an Igbo and former Governor of Anambra State, is the flag bearer of the resurgent Labour Party, LP. One of the main contenders is Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, a Yoruba, who had served for two terms as the Governor of Lagos State. Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, another political force in the election is a Fulani like the outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari. He is flying the flag of the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
This is reminiscent of the geo-political parallel in the country’s presidential election when Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe (Igbo) of the Nigerian People’s Party, NPP, squared up against Chief Obafemi Awolowo (Yoruba) of the Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN, and Alhaji Shehu Shagari, Hausa/Fulani of the National Party of Nigeria, NPN; and for the keenly contested 1979 polls which Shagari eventually won.
However, political analysts have talked of a three-horse presidential race with no certainty on who will likely be the country’s next president after the incumbent. But it will be wrong to ignore Senator Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, who is a force and arguably makes it a four-horse race.
BVAS Magic in the Election
While many said the presidential election is too close to call and that the race may go into the second round for the first time, others are excited over the emergence of LP as a ‘Third Force’ alternative to the major political parties, the ruling APC and the PDP.
Novel also, is the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC’s move to step up the application of technology in the electoral process of the 2023 elections to general acclaim.
However, reactionary forces have mounted both open and surreptitious campaigns to discredit the efficacy of INEC’s technology-driven electoral procedures.
Some political actors have been voicing criticisms and objections as others cast doubts on the relevance of INEC’s Bimodal Voter Accreditation System, BVAS and the Results Viewing Portal, otherwise known as electronic transmission of election results.
After taking delivery of the BVAS machines for the election, INEC tested them by conducting a mock accreditation of voters on February 4 to ensure their functionality.
Worrisome is the fact that the mock accreditation exercise recorded low turnout of registered voters due to issues of scarcity of Naira notes and inadequate awareness, raising fears of apathy in today’s election.
More on BVAS
Casting doubts on the reliability of the BVAS machines for voter and result management, the Osun State Governorship Election Petition Tribunal led by Justice Terste Kume, nullified the election of Governor Ademola Adeleke after some weeks at the helm of affairs in the state.
The panel held that the governorship election was not held in substantial compliance with the Electoral Act 2022 as it was characterised by over-voting despite the use of BVAS machines for voter identification.
But sources in INEC said the BVAS machines did not allow over-voting during the last governorship election in the state.
An insider, who spoke to Saturday Vanguard under condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said some politicians in connivance with some staff members may have deliberately bypassed BVAS or fed the wrong results on the result sheet, contrasting what was in the BVAS and the server.
“The BVAS is designed to actually expose those who plan to carry out over-voting on Election Day. So, it could not have created the problem. “If there are any gaps such that there is over-voting with BVAS, then politicians, voters and some presiding officers may have connived to bypass or subvert the voter accreditation process,” the source said.
Money and Vote Buying Politics
In the same breath, despite the Federal Government’s efforts to clean up the country’s highly monetised politics and elections through the introduction of the new Naira redesign policy, which among others, seeks to flush out the billions of currencies allegedly hoarded for buying of votes on Election Day, some influential but unscrupulous politicians are having their way.
They had infiltrated the banks and mopped up the redesigned Naira.
Amid a tight deadline just before the elections, the Federal Government may have failed to maroon the billions of naira known to have been stockpiled by politicians, including governors and other state actors, to influence the elections.
This situation has also raised concerns that money may still determine the outcome of today’s presidential election.
Unpredictable outcome
Nevertheless, today’s election is still not predictable, contrary to political permutations. For starters, regardless of what the pundits say, this remains one election that can go any way. Partisans are upbeat about their chances, but the facts show no one can be sure of victory in this election.
There were keen contests in the six previous elections since 1999, the power of incumbency or realignment of forces where the factors that foretold how the pendulum would swing. Somehow, things are a little different this year.
Although supporters of the APC and PDP underplay the chances of Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party, yet his raging popularity presents a challenge for both parties.
While Tinubu of the APC and Atiku of the PDP have nursed the ambition to rule Nigeria for a long time, can boast of huge resources, and built alliances around the country that many see as huge advantages the unprecedented entry of a seemingly formidable third force poses a dent, if not a threat, to the two of them. This is what makes the 2023 election different from the recent past elections.
(www.vanguardngr.com)
